Soccer Over Under Betting
Jan 24, 2020 Soccer data and insights Soccer bettors are increasingly looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, for which a lack of goals or a late equaliser can deny even the best judgments a winning bet. A straightforward way to try and beat the bookies on the soccer front is with the Over/Under goals markets. A sports betting OVER/UNDER is a bet where you have to correctly predict the combined score of both teams. You have to pick if the total score will be lower or higher than the number set by oddsmakers – the people at betting sites who set the lines and odds. An over-under or over/under (O/U) bet is a wager placed on whether the combined total score of both teams (or players) will be over or under a nominated number set by a bookmaker. The nominated number is usually assessed based on the average number of goals a team scores per match. Soccer over/under bets is a commonly found gambling product that is offered by most soccer betting sites in the online space currently. Over/under wagers are a prediction made by the gambler whether the total score made by both playing teams will in fact, exceed or be lower than the predicted posted total for the match. Your job as a bettor is to bet UNDER 46.5 if you think the combined score will be 46 or less and to bet OVER if you think the combined score will 47 or higher. Imagine the final score is 31-17 for Green Bay – those 48 points are OVER 46.5 so your OVER bet is a winner. If the game is a defensive battle won 17-13 by the Bears, those 30 points.
An over–under or over/under (O/U) bet is a wager in which a sportsbook will predict a number for a statistic in a given game[1] (usually the combined score of the two teams), and bettors wager that the actual number in the game will be either higher or lower than that number.[2][3] For example, in Super Bowl XXXIX, most Las Vegascasinos set the over–under for the score of the game at 46.0. A bettor could wager that the combined score of the two teams would be either more than or less than that number. Since the combined score of that game was 45, anyone who had bet on 'under' won.
Initial and final value[edit]
The goal of a sportsbook is to have an equal value of bets on both sides of the over–under. In theory, this means that the manager could set the value at zero and then re-adjust based on either the number of incoming bets and/or events that influence the potential outcome. In practice, the initial value is based on both quantitative (e.g. win–loss record, average points per game, etc.) and anecdotal information (e.g. media reports, injury status of players, etc.).
As with other types of bets where the odds of either outcome are meant to be even, the vigorish (or 'vig') is typically set at or about 5% of the total wager. Using American odds, this will result in both outcomes initially being quoted at -110 (i.e. bettors must risk $110 to win $100). If the amount bet on both outcomes is exactly even, using such odds would result in the sportsbook earning $5 in gross profit for every $110 wagered.
Of course, bettors will not necessarily risk the same amount of money on both outcomes every time. In such circumstances, there are two ways a sportsbook can mitigate the risk. The first is to adjust the O/U while keeping the odds of both at -110. For example, if the O/U for a football game is set at 45.5 and the action heavily favors the 'over' then the O/U could be adjusted to 46.5 to encourage bettors to take the 'under.' The risk here is that the sportsbook could lose a lot of money by being 'middled' - using the aforementioned example, if the final combined score is 46 then the sportsbook would be obligated to pay both the initial bettors who bet 'over' and the later bettors who bet 'under.'
The other method to mitigate risk is to adjust the odds on the initial O/U, which is slightly more complicated but eliminates the risk of being 'middled.' In the aforementioned example, the 'under' could be adjusted to -105 while the 'over' is changed to -115 (meaning bettors would have to risk $105 and $115 respectively to win $100) in order to make the original 'under' proposition more attractive (and the 'over' less so) to bettors. In actual scenarios, even adjustments of -100 (i.e. 'even money') and -120 are common place as sportsbooks typically endeavor to maintain steady margins and minimize risk.
Statistics[edit]
Though this bet is most commonly made with the combined score of the two teams, many other statistics can be used, including:
- In American football, a player's or team's total rushingyards or attempts, down conversions (first or third), interceptions, completions, field goal percentage, etc.
- In basketball, a player's or team's total assists, blocks, turnovers, steals, etc.
- In baseball, a player's or team's total number of home runs, RBIs, etc.
Dice[edit]
A variant of overunder betting, known as Under Over, is a dice game played at various festivals. The object of the game is to predict whether the dice will roll to a total of under 7, over 7, or at 7. The game is typically played with 2 dice.
A player typically places a wager on one of three spaces. These spaces are:
- Under 7 (usually pays 1–1)
- Over 7 (usually pays 1–1)
- 7 (usually pays 4–1)
For instance if one bets one dollar on under and the dealer rolls under, they gain a dollar as well as get their dollar back. If the dealer rolls a seven and one bets on it, they make four dollars. Once all the bets have been placed the attendant closes the betting board with a screen and then puts the dice through the chute. Players then get paid accordingly.
One variation of Under Over involves foam dice, two of which are thrown in the middle of the players; in another variation, two balls are thrown into a giant wheel consisting of twelve spaces of numbers ranging from 1–6. No wire fence is used to block the bets in that case.
References[edit]
Over 2 5 Predictions
- ^Kochan, M. (2013). Secrets of Professional Sports Betting. Cardoza Publishing. p. 12. ISBN978-1-58042-438-7. Retrieved April 25, 2015.
- ^Williams, L.V.; Siegel, D.S. (2014). The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling. Oxford Handbooks in Economics Series. OUP USA. p. 205. ISBN978-0-19-979791-2.
- ^Fodor's Las Vegas 2015. Full-color Travel Guide. Fodor's Travel Publications. 2014. ISBN978-0-8041-4300-4.